Jupiter in Ascension

and how Solar Inertial Motion affects solar insolation

I mentioned in an earlier post that I had a pet theory of the effects of Jupiter on the earth’s weather. To start with I’ll avoid all the complications and run a simple calculation to show how this might work.

Scene 1 : a planet in a circular orbit of one unit from the sun. The planet receives one unit of solar insolation in one orbit. Got that?

Scene 2 : The planet has an elliptical orbit whereby winter is 1.1 units from the sun, and summer is 0.9 units from the sun. Solar insolation is received depending on the square of the distance from the sun, hence summer gets proportionately more, and the winter proportionately less sunshine. What is the net effect? Slightly more solar insolation in the time to complete one orbit. How much more? Not a lot, some one percent, but that could mean a one percent increase in absolute temperature.

With that in mind, spend a few moments to contemplate an alignment of all the planets and the sun, and consider whether this will pull the earth further away from, or closer to the sun. Much depends on the position of the largest planet, Jupiter, and it is reasonable to suppose that when the earth is closest to Jupiter, it is slightly further from the sun, with some consequential effects on our weather. Climate Change, in other words.

Surprisingly, as I mentioned in an earlier post, at least one expert could not figure this out, and as a consequence, a Scientific Paper in which this was referred to was retracted by the publisher. Again, I outlined this in an earlier post.

Fortunately, a 14th November, 2022 interview by Tom Nelson (Climate realism) of Professor Zharkova breaks the story completely open. A ‘sort of’ timeline from the video follows :

Beats and oscillations described by the formula @00:31:03

Derivation of planetary motion with respect to the sun @00:53:00

The cycle described lso known as the Hallstatt Cycle and also seen in the Carbon14 in the trees, and the radioisotopes of the earth – 2000-2100 year cycle. This coincides with variations in solar irradiance.

2019 publication of paper containing one paragraph theorising that the current increase in the Earth's temperature could be because the Earth had moved closer to the sun @00:53:00

The publisher retracted the paper after pressure form the AGW Lobby and assurances from “experts” that the sun cannot move closer to the Earth.

Milankovich cycles are unsuitable and cannot help because the periods are of the order of 15,000 to 41,000 years, and the period under consideration is 2000 years.

Solar Inertial Motion is the motion of the sun around the centre of mass of the Solar System due to the variable positions of the giant planets, (J-Jupiter, S-Saturn, N-Neptune, U-Uranus). Annales Geophysicae, 18, 399-405, 2000.

Charvátová, I.: Can origin of the 2400-year cycle of solar activity be caused by solar inertial motion?

/quote

Abstract. A solar activity cycle of about 2400 years has until now been of uncertain origin. Recent results indicate it is caused by solar inertial motion. First we describe the 178.7-year basic cycle of solar motion. The longer cycle, over an 8000 year interval, is found to average 2402.2 years. This corresponds to the Jupiter/Heliocentre/Barycentre alignments (9.8855 × 243). Within each cycle an exceptional segment of 370 years has been found characterized by a looping pattern by a trefoil or quasitrefoil geometry. Solar activity, evidenced by 14C tree-ring proxies, shows the same pattern. Solar motion is computable in advance, so this provides a basis for future predictive assessments. The next 370-year segment will occur between AD 2240 and 2610.

/unquote

Ephemeris of Solar-Earth distances @01:09:00 Annual variations of mean distances 600-1600 and 1700-2600.

Solar radiation changes according to the inverse squared law @01:11:12 This equates to an additional 2.0-2.5 C degrees in 2500. Charts of TSI variations total monthly W/M2 @01:14:11

Errors in the IPCC calculations by overestimating the energy available for CO2 to absorb @01:18:42

The video runs for 01:22:26 and represents Professor Zharkova’s latest work on Celestial Mechanics and their effect on the Eath’s climate. She also refutes the basis for the publishers retraction of her 2019 paper. NASA agrees.

What to take away from this?

Zharkova forecasts a fall of 1-2C degrees in the Solar minimum 2020-2053 as a mini ice-age lasting from 2028-2042 with possible food shortages. This is a theory at the moment, hence questions remain about timing and the size of the effects.

I didn’t get all my questions answered about the effects of Jupiter on the Earth’s climate, but those may become measurable within a few years.

What about Zharkova’s thoughts about the overestimat of ability CO2 to absorb solar radiation as expounded in the last 10 minutes of the interview? I suspect it will not be long before the “factCheckers” get onto this.

[1] https://solargsm.com/solar-activity

[2] https://solargsm.com/publications

[3] http://solar.inf.brad.ac.uk/

[4] https://rumble.com/embed/v1rujtb/?pub=4

[5] https://rumble.com/v1ugpg9-42-valentina-zharkova-in-next-30-yrs-global-warming-prob.-will-be-last-thin.html

Links referenced in the interview :

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689

https://nam2015.org/index.php/press-releases/64-irregular-heartbeat-of-the-sun-driven-by-double-dynamo

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955/

https://angeo.copernicus.org/articles/18/399/2000/

https://www.intechopen.com/online-first/millenial-oscillations-of-solar-irradiance-and-magnetic-field-in-600-2600

https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/75534

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.00439.pdf